In 2010, Apple released the iPad, an ARM-powered tablet computer. Two years later, Microsoft released Windows RT, an ill-fated ARM version of its OS. At the same time, Intel was pushing its Atom x86 processors for phones and tablets, with limited success. It continued to struggle to compete with other companies’ low-powered designs, resulting in Microsoft taking a second shot at Windows on ARM, and Apple switching to its own processor line for laptops and desktops.
In 2017, two years after Intel failed to deliver on its 2015 target for 10nm processors, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung and others started shipping 10nm chips. These were not as technologically advanced as Intel’s proposed CPUs, but were nonetheless more dense than what Intel had to offer. By mid-2019, AMD, Intel’s main rival in the PC space, was selling processors built on TSMC’s 7nm process, which is broadly equivalent to Intel’s 10nm offering. Intel didn’t ship a 10nm chip until late 2019 and, as of writing, only a handful of 10nm Intel processors are found inside laptops, while its desktop chips are still on 14nm.
In the past few years, AMD has more-than doubled its CPU market share. Meanwhile, Qualcomm has a near-monopoly on the chips inside Android smartphones. Apple is transitioning away from Intel CPUs in its products, switching to its own chips fabricated on TSMC’s industry leading 5nm process.
All of which is a convoluted way to say, Intel is not in a good place and it doesn’t have anyone to blame but itself. The past 15 years have been like watching a freeway pileup in ultra slow motion, with poor decisions compounded by and negatively impacting others, as Intel has gone from being dominant to selling off divisions and playing catch up.
Intel has a plan
Gelsigner’s presentation was an odd mix of alarming and exciting. Intel is spending $20 billion to build two leading-edge fabrication plants (fabs) in Arizona, which will be “EUV capable,” meaning they’ll be able to produce chips at 7nm and lower. It also plans to expand on that with further fabs in the US and Europe.
At a time when global semiconductor supplies are both extremely strained and largely concentrated in Taiwan, that’s huge news. President Biden has ordered a review of US supply chains for semiconductors, and while Intel was clear there were no government incentives in place just yet, it says it's "excited to be partnering with the state of Arizona and the Biden administration on incentives that spur this type of domestic investment."
